﻿From:	Craig.Fugate@dca.state.fl.us
Sent:	Thursday, January 13, 2005 1:58:10 AM
To:	Jeb Bush <jeb@jeb.org>
CC:	FL_dep@dep.state.fl.us
Subject:	Re: FW: Phil Kleas to Jeb

here is a rebutal:

From the Tsunami Society: www.sthjournal.org.

Most recently, the Discovery Channel has replayed a program alleging potential destruction of coastal areas of the Atlantic by tsunami waves which might be generated in the near future by a volcanic collapse in the Canary Islands. Other reports have involved a smaller but similar catastrophe from Kilauea volcano on the island of Hawai`i. They like to call these occurences "mega tsunamis". We would like to halt the scaremongering from these unfounded reports. We wish to provide the media with factual information so that the public can be properly informed about actual hazards of tsunamis and their mitigation. 

Here are a set of facts, agreed on by committee members, about the claims in these reports: 

- While the active volcano of Cumbre Vieja on Las Palma is expected to erupt again, it will not send a large part of the island into the ocean, though small landslides may occur. The Discovery program does not bring out in the interviews that such volcanic collapses are extremely rare events, separated in geologic time by thousands or even millions of years. 

- No such event - a mega tsunami - has occurred in either the Atlantic or Pacific oceans in recorded history. NONE. 

- The colossal collapses of Krakatau or Santorin (the two most similar known happenings) generated catastrophic waves in the immediate area but hazardous waves did not propagate to distant shores. Carefully performed numerical and experimental model experiments on such events and of the postulated Las Palma event verify that the relatively short waves from these small, though intense, occurrences do not travel as do tsunami waves from a major earthquake. 

- The U.S. volcano observatory, situated on Kilauea, near the current eruption, states that there is no likelihood of that part of the island breaking off into the ocean. 

- These considerations have been published in journals and discussed at conferences sponsored by the Tsunami Society. 

Some papers on this subject include: 

"Evaluation of the threat of Mega Tsunami Generation From ....Volcanoes on La Palma ... and Hawaii", George Pararas-Carayannis, in Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol 20, No.5, pages 251-277, 2002. 

"Modeling the La Palma Landslide Tsunami", Charles L. Mader, in Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol. 19, No. 3, pages 160-180, 2001. 

"Volcano Growth and the Evolution of the Island of Hawaii", J.G. Moore and D.A.Clague, in the Geologic Society of America Bulletin, 104, 1992. 

Committee members for this report include: 

Mr. George Curtis, Hilo, HI (Committee Chairman) 808-963-6670 

Dr. Tad Murty, Ottawa, Canada, 613-731-8900 

Dr. Laura Kong, Honolulu, HI, 808-532-6422 

Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis, Honolulu, HI, 808-943-1150 

Dr. Charles L. Mader, Los Alamos, NM, 808-396-9855 

and all can comment on this or other tsunami matters. 

For information regarding the Tsunami Society and its publications, visit: www.sthjournal.org. 

For general and educational material on tsunamis, check: www.tsunami.org. 


-----"Jeb Bush" <jeb@jeb.org> wrote: -----



To: <FL_dep@dep.state.fl.us>, <craig.fugate@dca.state.fl.us>
From: "Jeb Bush" <jeb@jeb.org>
Date: 01/12/2005 06:56PM
Subject: FW: Phil Kleas to Jeb


what is your opinion? colleen can you ask our chief geologist? 

Jeb 
-----Original Message----- 
From: Phil Kleas [mailto:pkibd@hotmail.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2005 4:26 PM 
To: Jeb Bush 
Subject: Phil Kleas to Jeb 


Jeb,  First let me wish you a Happy New Year.  In light of the distruction of this recent tsanami in Indonisia I wanted to bring your valued attention to a huge potential problem of the east coast of the United States.  The Discovery Channel has been featuring a documentary on the plausable real possibility of a small island off the northern coast of Africa called La Palma in the Canary Island Chain. The island is totally volcanic in it's makup and due to this makup litterally succeptable to over 1/2 of the island to drop into the ocean at some point in the immediate future. Much geological study has already been done and validates this possibility. The island is four times the size of Catalina here in California.  This is no joke , and really needs to have our government look into it NOW , so we know the true status of the threat.  
The anticipated size of the wave they estimate is over 400 ft. in height and would travel East at a rate of speed over 550 mph. and hit every major eastern shore of our country from NY to Miami.     

Please look into this, it is a real possibility and something that should be on a high priority for our national security in light of the most recent occurances. 
Thought you might want to know about this 
Regards 
Phil Kleas 


